The global artificial intelligence (AI) sector is at an inflection point, poised to reshape the banking and finance industry over the next decade. Our analysis indicates that the AI market will expand from $279 billion in 2024 to between $1.5 and $1.8 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28–35%. This growth is underpinned by rapid technological innovation, accelerated enterprise adoption, and increasing regulatory clarity.
Key Insights
- Market Acceleration: AI adoption has doubled in the past year, with 65% of organizations now leveraging generative AI. Early adopters report 10–15% productivity improvements in knowledge work, driving tangible business value.
- Industry Structure: The AI value chain is consolidating around three segments:
- Infrastructure: Dominated by NVIDIA (92% GPU market share), with significant barriers to entry and high margins.
- Platforms: Led by Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, leveraging cloud infrastructure and enterprise integration.
- Applications: Rapid innovation among model developers (OpenAI, Anthropic) and vertical solution providers.
- Investment Attractiveness: The sector offers superior risk-adjusted returns. Leading companies demonstrate gross margins of 70%+ (software) and EBITDA margins of 40–50%.
- Regulatory Environment: The EU AI Act and evolving US frameworks are reducing uncertainty, supporting enterprise adoption and favoring established players with robust compliance capabilities.
Strategic Recommendations
- Portfolio Allocation: We recommend a 15–20% allocation of technology portfolios to AI, distributed across infrastructure (40%), platforms (35%), and applications (25%).
- Investment Priorities: Focus on market leaders with defensible moats—NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC (infrastructure); Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (platforms); OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks (applications).
- Risk Management: Active monitoring of regulatory developments and competitive dynamics is essential, given the pace of innovation and potential for disruption.
Outlook
AI is positioned to contribute up to $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030, fundamentally transforming productivity, cost structures, and revenue models in banking and finance. The sector’s long-term fundamentals remain robust, with attractive entry valuations and clear pathways to sustained outperformance.
For a comprehensive analysis, including detailed market sizing, competitive benchmarking, and actionable investment frameworks, download the full report here.
Bank & Finance Consulting Group, July 2025
